In the spirit of March Madness, one of the biggest gambling events of the year, we’re “doubling down” on what has become one of our most dissected defensive strategies of late—”Hits.”
Over the last few years, we’ve amassed several different “Hit” strategies for coaches to consider as a way to gain an extra possession, play the expected PPP odds, and/or disrupt an offense’s reliance on primary shot creators.
Originally introduced to us on the podcast by Coach Nate Babcock, who championed the merits of “Hitting” during end-of-quarter/halftime possessions as a strategy to take the offense out of their late-clock ISO/PNR concepts and bait them into taking a quick shot. The overall objective of the “Hit” was to secure the last possession of the quarter instead of passively allowing the opponent to take the final shot.
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This strategy has analytical roots. By conceding the last shot, the defense, on a Points Per Possession (PPP) basis, automatically accepts a probability of giving up points with no chance of a another possession of their own. Therefore, as the theory goes, it is in the defense’s best interest to do whatever it can to gain an extra possession and mitigate that PPP disadvantage.
By “Hitting,” the defense can force the offense into taking a quicker, disorganized shot (ideally with 8–10 seconds still remaining in the quarter/half), leaving enough time to transition up the floor and take the final shot themselves.
*Side Note: We spoke at length about end of quarter situations and the timing of “2 for 1’s” with Minnesota T’Wolves Head Coach, Chris Finch, last year. Worth a listen. 🎧
While not a strategy for every team or situation, we’ve continued to see more teams employing the “Hit” tactic beyond just end-of-quarter and halftime scenarios. “Hitting” the ballhandler has proven to be highly adaptable across a variety of situations and valuable for reasons that extend beyond pure analytics. Here are a couple…
Stealing Possessions
In what we’ll call “Stealing Possessions,” a surprise “hit” when the offense is trying to organize itself after a made basket or ATO can disrupt the flow and create chaos. Forcing a turnover or challenging the offense to adapt to unpredictability are two key benefits, potentially resulting in an extra possession for the defense or, at the very least, a wasted possession for the offense. These situations often arise after timeouts, when the opponent returns to the floor with a clear set play designed to exploit a defensive weakness or generate a desired shot.
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Zooming In: The opportunistic nature of the trap often catches the remaining four offensive players out of position to offer proper pressure releases. With the trap preventing the point guard from initiating the offense and distorting spacing for outlets, finding solutions to exploit the brief 4 on 3 advantage is not as straightforward as it might seem.
Another clever deployment of the “Hit” can be used when coming out of the quarter break or halftime{🔒}…
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Zooming In: The key to maximizing success in this situation is for the defender on the ball to force the point guard’s catch near the sideline, preventing them from centering the ball. This shortens the distance the trap defender must cover to impact the ball. Additionally, emphasis should be placed on rotating a third defender up to cover the inbounder, denying the easy release pass.
One other use of this strategy to disrupt a possession, though challenging and opportunistic, is springing the trap on the ball after a made basket, particularly when the inbound pass is made by a “traditional” 5-man. In contrast to the previous “Hits,” which occur in more controlled situations, a made basket “Hit”{🔒} requires a high level of recognition from the 5-man and the remaining players to assess the situation and execute the trap effectively.
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Zooming In: With a high priority on pace these days, wings and guards are often instructed to sprint up the court and fill the corners to create proper early offensive spacing. When the big man is tasked with the same directive, the ballhandler can be caught isolated in the backcourt as the 5-man rotates off the big to trap the ball.
“Anyone But Him”
Another motive for sending a “Hit” is the “Anyone But Him” strategy. Whether due to an uncontrollable matchup, mismatch prevention, or the opponent’s lack of alternative threats, in this strategy the defense will “roll the dice” that the offense will struggle to find viable solutions when “hitting” a primary creator or ballhandler.
First, we explored the use of “hitting” the ballhandler after a switch in the PNR {🔒}. This “Hit” option can be used if an opponent has well-executed automatics against a certain ballscreen coverage or a ballhandler capable of dissecting the given ballscreen coverage. If this is the case, the defense can choose to minimize the need to help on the ball by keeping everyone in front with the switch.
This creates an opportunity to “hit” the ball. Since the switch initially keeps the defense out of help, they are well-organized to send a double-team from the full (two-player) side of the court, applying pressure while maintaining coverage behind the trap.
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Zooming In: What we have noticed in our breakdown is that by “Hitting” the ballhandler after the switch, the defense can effectively resolve both mismatches conceded with the ballscreen switch. A more capable defender stays after the trap on the ball, while the big drops back to the rim to bounce the guard out of the post mismatch.
Building upon this post-switch “Hitting” strategy, in an effort to keep the offense off balance and get the desired match up back on the ballhandler, the defense can “hit” off the roller as well {🔒}…
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Zooming In: As shown above, this variation of the “Hit” comes from the initial on-ball defender, who briefly tracks the roller before releasing to double back onto the ballhandler.
Perhaps, switching is not for you, or, you’d rather keep a defensive big out of the rotation and keep size on size. Then you might enjoy the “Quick Show to Hit” {🔒}…
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Zooming In: In this strategy, whenever the primary ballhandler is attacking towards the loaded side (with two or more players) the next closest defender follows up the big’s Quick Show by aggressively jumping or “hitting” the ballhandler. This is then followed by the other guard bouncing out and transitioning into the scramble.
Clearly, this is an ultra-aggressive defensive strategy that momentarily commits three defenders to the ball, and running this scheme every time the spacing allows could be a tough ask for the defense. However, throughout our film study, we’ve found that with the right situational and opponent scouting awareness, scenarios will emerge that minimize the risk of the aggression while optimizing the effectiveness of the coverage.
Finally, if the offense is committed to letting their primary threat “cook” while spacing the floor around their creation, and the defense believes they cannot contain the matchup 1v1, they can force the issue by immediately running a “hit” at them on the catch. This approach aims to deny the offensive player any chance to create a scoring advantage off the dribble while putting pressure on the other four offensive players to find late-clock solutions.
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The “Hit” strategy continues to evolve as teams look for creative ways to disrupt offensive flow, steal extra possessions, and dictate matchups. While it is aggressive by nature, when executed with the right timing and awareness, it can be a game-changing defensive weapon. As March Madness continues to unfold, keep an eye out for teams that aren’t afraid to roll the dice and take calculated risks to try and shift momentum in their favor.